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Macro · Household · Special Edition · April 2026

The Price Floor Problem

Why Lower Inflation Does Not Automatically Translate Into Household Relief When the Cumulative Price Level Remains Elevated

9.7%Inflation — Feb 2026 (down from 33.9% peak)
5.4×CPI vs 2016 base level
87%Went without cash income at least once in 2023
122%Electricity tariff increase — Sep 2024

About This Brief

What this brief covers.

Stabilisation at 9.7% inflation means the basket of necessities is getting more expensive more slowly — not that it has stopped. The consumer price level is 5.4 times its 2016 base. An Afrobarometer survey found that 87% of Ethiopians went without a cash income at least once in the previous year. The electricity tariff increase of 122% in September 2024 compounded a birr depreciation that had already raised the cost of imported fuel, medicine, and inputs.

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