Two Commodities. One Structural Problem.

Ethiopia's $8.3 billion export record in FY2024/25 is real. The problem is that 74% comes from gold and coffee — both at or near cycle highs and both structurally fragile. The formalisation channel shift in gold largely happened in one year and will not repeat at the same scale. Brazilian coffee supply will recover. The sectors that should be diversifying the base — oilseeds, horticulture, industrial parks, manufacturing — are collectively underperforming their targets.